Should You Write Your Inventory Down?

(Written week of April 20, 2020, in the middle of coronavirus pandemic.)

I get several calls and/or emails a day asking, “What should I do about my aging inventory now that sales have slowed so badly.”

My first piece of advice is this may not be the time to be thinking about writing your inventory down.

It is certainly a time to think about retailing everything you can at some number.

That said, there may come a point at which you need to write down a selected few units or possibly your entire inventory.

If you’ve been allowing units to exceed 60 days then you may be in big poop and have to bite the big bullet.

The first thing to understand is don’t bother writing your inventory down unless of course, you’re going to commit to some serious changes.

Often when dealers write their used car inventory down, they take a big hit, a deep breath, and say, “OK, done, let’s move forward.”

Many dealers lack the discipline to steer away from what got them there in the first place. Therefore, in six months or so, the owners are staring at the same hot mess they tried to fix and thinking here we go again.

It hurts me to say this, and I know it’s going to cause a few of you to unsubscribe from my newsletters but taking units to the auction and dumping them is just plain dumb.

If you thought enough of that 60-day old unit to bring it into your inventory as a retail piece, you should have been able to find a retail buyer for it at some number. There’s a number that every unit can be retailed at.

Therein lies the problem. You won’t retail it for what it’s actually worth, yet you’re willing to wholesale it for what it’s actually worth.

Of course, your attitude is different right now as a lot of you are being forced to retail units at less than desirable numbers. You would have been better served to have had that sort of mindset before we got to this hot mess of today.

Hey Einstein, which way do you think you have the greatest opportunity to recover from a unit that was probably a bad decision from jump-street? Insanity.

The instances where you have to dump a previously assigned retail piece in the wholesale market should be very few. If you’re in the retail automobile business, then retail your units.

Yes, the grosses on all that aged stuff are going to hurt you for a while. Dumping in the wholesale market will hurt you more. If you have a lick of discipline and stay with it, you will be fine and never, ever have another unit over 60.

My Life-Cycle management process gives you the disciplines and strategies that will keep you from saying, “More write-downs, here we go again.”

If you’re interested I have an easy to use spreadsheet that I’d be happy to send you. It helps you make the adjustments and encourages you to set a new life-cycle on each unit you write-down. Hit the reply button and it will be on its way.

One more thing to keep in mind; 30 days is now the new 60. Be mindful of your 30-day rolling sales numbers vs your current inventory numbers.

This may or may not be the time for write-downs.

If you are going to write down your inventory let me coach you through it. It costs you nothing for me to help you.

That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Let’s Do A webinar For Just Your Store or Stores

Of course, you’re trying to streamline things and become as efficient as you can be. I’m no different. So, since traveling is out of the question right now I want to offer your store a private webinar.

If you have more than one store you can include them. One of the great benefits of my training over the years is that I’ve been able to come to you. Why has my training been so effective?

When we get all the members of your management team in one room, I lay it all out on the table for them. Therefore, there’s no confusion about the direction you’re trying to go.

The sticking power is amazing when the team gets on the same page. That program takes about 4 hours, lots of travel on my part and a good size investment on yours.

Since I can’t come to you right now, I’ll do an hour and a half webinar for your store or stores.

I’m going to give you 6 key bullet points to focus on that are simple and easy to implement. They will make you instantly better.

The investment is $1500.

Now think about it; If you bring me to your dealership, you will spend that and then some on flights, hotel and meals plus what I charge for my brilliance.

By doing it virtually you can have all the members of your management team join in. The benefit of getting your entire team on the same page is worth its weight in gold.

Do the math. What’s it costing per store, per manager? It’s a no-brainer.

How is this different from a typical webinar I might promote?

When I do a regular webinar we have from 50 to 100 people on the line. It’s impossible to ask questions and address individual store’s issues.

We can set up a conference call the day before to make sure I’m on target with what your needs are.

The slots will fill up quickly. If you have the slightest bit of interest, please reach out.

That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

A Perfect Time For Change?

(Written in April 2020 in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.)

There’s never a perfect time to make changes.

That said, we should certainly do our research, do some strategic planning and pick a time and place that gives us the best chance to succeed.

Many dealers are likely going to be making tough decisions about staff and business strategies in the near term.

One of those most likely to go to the top of the list are pay plans.

Part of that evaluation is to determine if you’re incentivizing the right behaviors that are going motivate the mindset of current and potential team members moving forward.

Dealers have known for years that paying on gross has its issues but evaluating options and making changes often gets put off because of the concern of upsetting the staff and the “timing” is always wrong.

There may never be a better time than right now to make that change.

In the end, a smart Dealer/GM would be wise to seek input from the sales staff and sales management.

Buy-in of the “new plan” has a much better chance of succeeding when the team believes it’s their plan.

Maybe this is also a good time to review:

1. The selling process.

2. Used car aging policy.

3. Recon time to the front line.

4. Website (I dare you. Go look at it. Click around a little.)

5. Ability to sell a vehicle remotely. Do you have a real process in place? (Electronic Signature and delivery procedure.)

6. Staffing. The right people? The wrong people? People doing the wrong things for their skill level? “The right people on the bus, sitting in the right seats, doing the right stuff.”

7. Advertising & Marketing. Are you spending the money in the right places? Better yet, are you holding those places accountable for the numbers they are generating or not?

8. F&I process from the turn-over to F&I to contracts in transit. Is F&I a part of your online selling process?

9. Factory receivables. Are your factory receivables in shape and being followed up on? Are you getting every dime they owe you?

10. Never has there been a better time to evaluate your leadership and communication skills than right now.

Right now, more than ever before in your store’s history, your team needs to see and hear you. It can be a one-on-one session or an all-hands-on-deck meeting. It just needs to be.

There’s no perfect way for you to deliver the message. Just make sure you keep delivering.

People often feel they are left in the dark about what’s going on.

You are the light. Shine your light. You are their light and hope that we will get through this hot mess.

Go shine your light. That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

ARE YOU NERVOUS?

When I was a kid growing up in Richmond VA my father had a “dirt lot” used car lot.

My father and some of his fellow used car dealer friends loved to gamble. Back in those days they would rent a hotel room in downtown Richmond and play cards all night long.

Some nights he came home with money. Some nights he came home broke.

My father’s nickname with his peers was “Nervous.” Yep, they called him nervous. He was always worried that the cops were going to raid the joint and take ’em all to jail.

We all inherit traits from our parents. I inherited the “nervous” trait from my father.

Used cars make me nervous. Some used cars make me more nervous than others. This is a time to be more nervous about some than others.

You should be identifying the ones that make you the most nervous and come up with a plan to make them go away.

A few of the ones that make me the most nervous are:

1. High dollar
2. High miles
3. Bad colors
4. Bad equipment
5. Cars we have too much money in from jump street
6. Anything 45 days old and older
7. Auction purchases
8. High cost to market
9. High day’s supply

Gambling made my dad nervous.

Used cars make me nervous.

Gambling on the wrong used cars makes me even more nervous.

What makes you nervous? That’s all I’m gonna ask, Tommy Gibbs

Should You Hold Your Inventory Past 60

(Note;this article was written on March 3, 2020, in the middle of the Coronavirus Pandemic)

I’m getting a lot of phone calls and emails right now asking my advice on inventory levels vs. a shrinking market.

More or less the question is: “Our sales are drastically down; my inventory is up so should I dump my inventory in the wholesale market or hold onto it for when the market comes back?”

We all have an opinion. Mine is based on life experiences, common sense, market data and trends I see within our software product.

Number one on that list is common sense. This might be one of those places where using Ben Franklin mythology is the smart thing to do.

I believe the worse option is to hold them for a longer length of time in hopes the market will come back. If you were to do that, you’re betting values will remain the same or go up. Bad bet.

Basic ROI math tells you that’s not going to work out in your favor.

Another super bad option is dumping units in the wholesale market. That’s not to say that you should never do that. It may be wise to dump a few selected units that you know you need to cash out on, but never should it be a large part of your inventory. I’m just being real.

Keep the following in mind; at some point, the factory and/or government is going to do something to spur new car sales.

When that happens, more trades will show up at the front door and values will decline.

You can also bet the rental car companies are going to start to unload inventories which will help create an additional drag on used car values. The law of supply and demand is always in play.

Let’s assume that sales in your market are off by 50%.

Somebody will sell the 50% that’s out buying. Price will become that much more of a factor for those folks that are willing and able to buy right now.

Managing prices on a day-by-day, hour-by-hour basis has never been more critical than right now. Your goal should be to retail a car at some number and therefore get more than your fair share of the pie/market.

Your focus has to be on today’s “buying market.” You may even have to retail some units at a loss. I’m not going to insult your intelligence by listing all the reasons a retail sale, even a loser, is in your best interest.

You know it is, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you are looking at negative gross.

Yes, it’s going to be painful, but not half as painful if you play the “let’s hold them and deal with it later strategy.”

If you want to play a paper shell game, then adjust any losing unit once it’s sold. Eat the loss a little each month until the end of the year.

If your salespeople and managers are being paid on gross, you’re going to need to be creative and protect them to some degree until this mess passes.

In the normal course of doing business, your inventory levels should not be any greater than what you have sold over the last 30 days. That’s quickly getting out of line, but if you’ve been focusing on it, you’re not in as bad a shape as some dealers.

A good tip of the day for you right now would be to make sure everyone is keeping an eye on the rolling 30 days sales numbers.

The Scoreboard page in my UpYourGross software is a tremendous tool to help keep you on track and out of trouble.

You need every tool you can muster up to get out in front of this hot mess we’re all in.

If you’re interested, you can have it for April for $100. Spend $100 to make you and your team better during the most difficult time ever in the car business.

It seems like a no-brainer. It’s also a no-brainer to stay disciplined with inventory turn.

That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Balls To The Walls

Going back to 2013 (Article) and even further I’ve been trying to tell you that now was the time to take action.

I’ve continuously said you cannot afford to do things when you “have to.”

I’ve said time and again that you need to be leading from the front and not chasing from the rear.

I’ve talked for years of the fact that you don’t need those big fancy showrooms. I realize that can be a tough fight with the factory, but some of you let your ego get in the way with size, cost, and sizzle.

I preached for years that all salespeople need to become Internet salespeople. People want to deal as little as possible with your staff in the showroom.

Even without the coronavirus you’ve seen showroom traffic dwindle year after year.

How many times have I said you have to be set up with electronic signature so you can do as much as possible online?

So here we are; social distancing is the theme of the day and many dealers are scrambling to change up their business models.

Some of you have heeded that advice and are in better shape than others. Even so, you still have work to do.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there’s no going back to “normal.” This may well be the “new normal.”

If you’re not already dialed into the new way of doing business you need to quickly go into a “balls to the walls, take no prisoners” mindset and sense of urgency.

Put as much time and money in as you have to. We’re at that point in time where you don’t have a choice.

Now you have to, which is never the position any of us want to be in. You just have to do it. That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Someone Needs To Hear From You

This business is never easy. One of the most interesting things about it is you don’t get to enjoy the wins for very long.

If you’re like me, you love the challenges it brings to the table each and every day. I always look forward to getting up in the morning and “getting after it.”

The number one thing I miss about being a car dealer is connecting with the team members and the energy I get from them each day. That’s really hard for many of you to do right now.

Since I’ve been in the speaking, training and coaching business I primarily work alone. It can be challenging at times since I only have myself to rely on.

Your situation right now is different, yet similar. I like the mindset of “staying after myself.”

You’re now being challenged to stay after yourself. It’s easy to feel despair and quit. I don’t mean that you’ve actually quit, except maybe inside your head.

Even under normal circumstances, it doesn’t matter if you
work alone or work with 500 people, you still have to “stay after yourself.” It’s something you can actually get better at.

“Staying after yourself” requires planning and discipline.

Some key elements to “staying after yourself” include reading, writing, listening, doing research and finding positive things on YouTube to view and share with your team.

Those things open your mind and help you see what the possibilities might be.

I’ve become a firm believer that writing is a bigger component to success than one might think.

I don’t mean that you have to be an award winning author; writing your thoughts down each day helps to open your brain up to where you’ve been and where you can go.

Writing helps you “stay after yourself.” It will help you self-evaluate your actions, your behavior and how well you are accomplishing those “continuous goals” you should be writing down. You have to constantly evaluate, tweak and adjust your goals so you are always moving forward.

A big part of staying after yourself is to “stay after others.”

The more you encourage others, the more you are encouraging yourself. There is nothing you can do that is more important than helping others along the way.

You text or private message others, but can you imagine the impact you can have right now with a simple phone call? You have a powerful voice. Now is the time to use it.

The person on the other end needs that call. You may need it even more.

Since you can make a difference, go make a difference.

That’s all I’m gonna say.Tommy Gibbs

Be Tough

We’ve all heard the saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” Those words were never truer than they are today.

I actually started writing this a few weeks ago, but my spin on the subject is spot on depending on your definition of the word “competition.”

Right now you’re not just competing against other dealers, you’re competing against the media’s spin and unknown factors that are upsetting you, your team, and the market.

We’ve had some good years so it’s easy to feel somewhat satisfied.

You can never be satisfied. Those sounds you hear behind you are the competition coming to gobble you up. If you take just one little break, take your eye off the ball for one second, or have one little hiccup, it could be the very thing that starts a downward spiral.

As Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz reminds us, “Seek to renew yourself, even when you’re hitting home runs.” How appropriate is that in today’s market?

Tough times and competition always make you better. Those competitors running behind you are a good thing. Learn to appreciate your competitors and make it a point to learn from them. Use them to scare you into more heightened motivation and a stronger competitive mind-set.

Successful people often succeed out of fear. The fear of failure. The fear of falling back. The fear of giving up all they have worked so hard for. It’s that fear that causes the successful ones to keep pushing and to keep looking for new and better ways of doing things.

Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, once said, “You either eat someone for lunch, or you can be lunch.”

Competition is the very lifeblood of a driven business leader. Study it. Embrace it. Love it. Use it as success fuel. Use it to take you to the top of your mental game.

Develop an unstoppable competitive mindset, and it will push you so far ahead of the competition that you won’t have to worry about looking over your shoulder.

Competition is an extra spice that keeps life interesting, keeps us on our toes, and stimulates us to greater creativity and productivity.

The best leaders realize that when they are having success it’s easy for the team to become satisfied and complacent and it’s the leader’s job never to let that happen.

A leader’s job is to push the team through the good times to the next level, and the next level, and the next level.

Pushing through the good times was my original thought on this newsletter. Real leadership shows up when times are tough.

Make sure you show up. That’s all I’m gonna say.Tommy Gibbs

Pandemic Panic: A Scary Time to Be In Business? March 2020

As you are all aware by now there’s quite a bit of unease looming in the air with the one-two punch of COVID-19 and the current Oil Price War. We’ve taken some time to pull together information that we thought could be useful for your planning process as we navigate these shaky times.

I know I don’t need to remind most of you what we went through back in 2008-2009, but there’s no more resilient group of people in the world than the automobile dealers in the USA. We will push through this just like we’ve always done.

Our thoughts are summarized below.

Current Status

Dealers across the nation are reporting that demand is on target with prior expectations at the moment, but it is a much different picture in localized regions and likely to move downward. Local areas that have been more affected by the spread of coronavirus are seeing a decline in sales. Seattle, for example, saw a 20% decline in auto sales last week.

We expect these localized trends to continue as consumers will be likely to exhibit behavior change when things get “close to home”. Also, on a national level, as more celebrities/influencers contract the virus and more organizations/governments take measures to contain it, media coverage will expand and consumers will likely take it more personally, even if it is not yet local. This will likely help propel a downward trend nationally.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says he expects the outbreak to send U.S. auto sales down 9% this year as consumers delay large purchases. Prior to the virus he expected a decline of 1-2%.

It’s unclear at this time whether this will be a quick event or something that plays out over a longer period of time.

Recommendation: Plan for a Range of Scenarios

Right now there is a ton of uncertainty and doom and gloom in the media. Don’t get too caught up in the worst-case scenario and remember to think rationally. Good leadership should plan for a range of scenarios, not just one. We recommend reading the attached report published by McKinsey & Company. This report does a great job of briefing the current situation and range of possible scenarios at a global economic level based on the current facts.

Also, stay informed and pay attention to news and trends for your local market around containment efforts impacting your customers like school/work closures or remote work mandates. Let your leading indicators, like floor traffic, help guide you in your decision making.

Recommendation: Be Hyper-focused on Inventory Levels

If things do slowdown it’s important that you maintain appropriate inventory levels and don’t get stuck with too many units that are destined to age out. Similarly, you don’t want to miss out on a quick recovery because you are too short on inventory right at tax refund time.

To help manage this balance, pay particular attention to units sold vs units acquired at a more granular level than you typically would. We’d recommend your team touch base on this daily as long as market volatility is high and be a touch towards the short side on how many units you’re stocking to accommodate for a likely slowdown. The closer you are to these numbers the quicker you will be able to take corrective action if needed.

A good tactic here could be to pay attention to daily sales compared to prior periods and to project 7-day rolling sales, 14-day rolling sales, and 21-day rolling sales into monthly sales rates. For example, if you sold 10 units in the last 7 days, that would translate to 42 units (10/7 x 30) in a month. Similarly, if you sold 25 units in the last 14 days and 38 units in the last 21 days that would equate to monthly rates of 53 units (25/14 x 30) and 54 units (38/21 x 30), respectively.

You would compute these values for every rolling category every day (i.e. 7-day rolling monthly rate, 14-day rolling monthly rate, etc.). You could then plot each of these rolling monthly rates each day to see if things are slowing down. This would be good to review in the daily meeting mentioned above.

A good rule of thumb would be that your current inventory should not greatly exceed those monthly values. So if you 7-day rolling sales equates to a sales rate of 42 units a month, and you currently have 70 units on hand, you’re likely going to experience unwanted aging on at least 20 of these units.

Note that if things are changing fast in your area, it will take time for the longer rolling periods to pick them up, so pay particular attention to the fluctuations in the 7 and 14-day values. You could use even shorter rolling periods as well, just know that they will be a little more all over the place as they could relate to the day of the week and are just generally have more noise as they are a single data point.

Also, if you do see signs of the virus becoming a bigger concern locally (school closures, spike in cases, local quarantines, cancelation of activities), be sure to adjust levels and cut back on auction purchases in anticipation of things slowing down a little. The 20% decline in Seattle might be a good reference point if things start to hit closer to home for you. (Note this number can change over time, so it would be a good idea to keep an eye on places that are harder hit and see what they are experiencing as you are planning to have a concept of the downside)

Recommendation: Preserving Cash is King in Uncertain Times, Be Hyper-focused on Advertising ROI

In times of great uncertainty and fear, retail marketing effectiveness can take a huge hit as consumers can become distracted and too worried about “bigger problems” to pay attention to your marketing efforts. This is a large variable expense that you should become hyper-focused on now. We’d recommend setting up a daily meeting to touch base on advertising spend and performance as long as market volatility is high.

We’ve attached a report from Dealer Teamwork that has some good comments on short-term branding and consumer behavior due to the virus that is worth a read.

Future Status

While things may slow down initially, we do believe that there will be a post-panic boom. This is likely to be fueled by pent-up demand and historically low rates. Its too early to make any comments on the timing here but do believe these conditions will prove to be favorable in the future. Stay the course and use any downtime to focus on all your basics that have served you so well in the past. Tommy Gibbs & Jarrod Tanton

We’re here to help

We wish you and your team the best during this uncertainty. Be safe, use common sense, and protect your health. Don’t hesitate to reach out if we can be of any assistance in any way.

 

Breath of Life?

I received a call the other day from a dealer raving about how great his used car business is.

Over the years his increase in used car sales has been astonishing. In part, because he became a believer in a lot of my concepts and philosophies; none more important than retailing anything that has a breath of life in it.

I’ve always been a big believer in trying to retail everything that has a breath of life left in it. Certainly, you have state safety laws to abide by and of course, you may have your own standards for safety and reconditioning.

Often dealers conclude that they don’t want to mess with the older used vehicles because they don’t want to damage their reputation. I’ve never understood that part. The customers buying the older, cheaper units are thrilled to have that vehicle. It’s not going to hurt your reputation.

In case you’re sitting on the fence on a “Budget Center,” ask yourself these simple questions.

1. What about all the parts and service gross that would have been generated on the less expensive cars going through service and reconditioning?

2. What about the fact that you could have put more money in some trades because you intend to retail them vs. wholesale them? How many more car deals do you end up making because you have a better plan?

3. Does the increase in volume from the less expensive units impact the attitude of the sales staff and their ability to earn additional income? Isn’t it true the best time to sell a car is when you just sold a car?

4. What’s the benefit of having someone driving a car, any car, high dollar, low dollar, that they purchased from you?

5. Is there a chance you just sold a car to someone who might never have set foot in your store simply because you had a vehicle at a price point they could afford to pay?

6. Is it possible that this new customer has a friend or relative who might one day come buy something because of the way this new customer was treated during the buying experience?

7. Are the odds in your favor that they may come back for an oil change or another service?

8. Does doing business generate business?

9. What’s the “Return on Investment” on selling these less expensive cars? Relative to the amount of money tied up, aren’t they a far better investment than what you would make with a $25,000 car?

How many times in a year can you turn over a $7,000 to $10,000 investment vs. a $25,000 investment?

10. Doesn’t it make sense that if you can sell more cars with less money tied up that it’s a good thing? There isn’t much of a downside to increasing volume and decreasing investment.

It’s found money, that’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs