Should You Hold Your Inventory Past 60

(Note;this article was written on March 3, 2020, in the middle of the Coronavirus Pandemic)

I’m getting a lot of phone calls and emails right now asking my advice on inventory levels vs. a shrinking market.

More or less the question is: “Our sales are drastically down; my inventory is up so should I dump my inventory in the wholesale market or hold onto it for when the market comes back?”

We all have an opinion. Mine is based on life experiences, common sense, market data and trends I see within our software product.

Number one on that list is common sense. This might be one of those places where using Ben Franklin mythology is the smart thing to do.

I believe the worse option is to hold them for a longer length of time in hopes the market will come back. If you were to do that, you’re betting values will remain the same or go up. Bad bet.

Basic ROI math tells you that’s not going to work out in your favor.

Another super bad option is dumping units in the wholesale market. That’s not to say that you should never do that. It may be wise to dump a few selected units that you know you need to cash out on, but never should it be a large part of your inventory. I’m just being real.

Keep the following in mind; at some point, the factory and/or government is going to do something to spur new car sales.

When that happens, more trades will show up at the front door and values will decline.

You can also bet the rental car companies are going to start to unload inventories which will help create an additional drag on used car values. The law of supply and demand is always in play.

Let’s assume that sales in your market are off by 50%.

Somebody will sell the 50% that’s out buying. Price will become that much more of a factor for those folks that are willing and able to buy right now.

Managing prices on a day-by-day, hour-by-hour basis has never been more critical than right now. Your goal should be to retail a car at some number and therefore get more than your fair share of the pie/market.

Your focus has to be on today’s “buying market.” You may even have to retail some units at a loss. I’m not going to insult your intelligence by listing all the reasons a retail sale, even a loser, is in your best interest.

You know it is, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you are looking at negative gross.

Yes, it’s going to be painful, but not half as painful if you play the “let’s hold them and deal with it later strategy.”

If you want to play a paper shell game, then adjust any losing unit once it’s sold. Eat the loss a little each month until the end of the year.

If your salespeople and managers are being paid on gross, you’re going to need to be creative and protect them to some degree until this mess passes.

In the normal course of doing business, your inventory levels should not be any greater than what you have sold over the last 30 days. That’s quickly getting out of line, but if you’ve been focusing on it, you’re not in as bad a shape as some dealers.

A good tip of the day for you right now would be to make sure everyone is keeping an eye on the rolling 30 days sales numbers.

The Scoreboard page in my UpYourGross software is a tremendous tool to help keep you on track and out of trouble.

You need every tool you can muster up to get out in front of this hot mess we’re all in.

If you’re interested, you can have it for April for $100. Spend $100 to make you and your team better during the most difficult time ever in the car business.

It seems like a no-brainer. It’s also a no-brainer to stay disciplined with inventory turn.

That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Balls To The Walls

Going back to 2013 (Article) and even further I’ve been trying to tell you that now was the time to take action.

I’ve continuously said you cannot afford to do things when you “have to.”

I’ve said time and again that you need to be leading from the front and not chasing from the rear.

I’ve talked for years of the fact that you don’t need those big fancy showrooms. I realize that can be a tough fight with the factory, but some of you let your ego get in the way with size, cost, and sizzle.

I preached for years that all salespeople need to become Internet salespeople. People want to deal as little as possible with your staff in the showroom.

Even without the coronavirus you’ve seen showroom traffic dwindle year after year.

How many times have I said you have to be set up with electronic signature so you can do as much as possible online?

So here we are; social distancing is the theme of the day and many dealers are scrambling to change up their business models.

Some of you have heeded that advice and are in better shape than others. Even so, you still have work to do.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there’s no going back to “normal.” This may well be the “new normal.”

If you’re not already dialed into the new way of doing business you need to quickly go into a “balls to the walls, take no prisoners” mindset and sense of urgency.

Put as much time and money in as you have to. We’re at that point in time where you don’t have a choice.

Now you have to, which is never the position any of us want to be in. You just have to do it. That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Someone Needs To Hear From You

This business is never easy. One of the most interesting things about it is you don’t get to enjoy the wins for very long.

If you’re like me, you love the challenges it brings to the table each and every day. I always look forward to getting up in the morning and “getting after it.”

The number one thing I miss about being a car dealer is connecting with the team members and the energy I get from them each day. That’s really hard for many of you to do right now.

Since I’ve been in the speaking, training and coaching business I primarily work alone. It can be challenging at times since I only have myself to rely on.

Your situation right now is different, yet similar. I like the mindset of “staying after myself.”

You’re now being challenged to stay after yourself. It’s easy to feel despair and quit. I don’t mean that you’ve actually quit, except maybe inside your head.

Even under normal circumstances, it doesn’t matter if you
work alone or work with 500 people, you still have to “stay after yourself.” It’s something you can actually get better at.

“Staying after yourself” requires planning and discipline.

Some key elements to “staying after yourself” include reading, writing, listening, doing research and finding positive things on YouTube to view and share with your team.

Those things open your mind and help you see what the possibilities might be.

I’ve become a firm believer that writing is a bigger component to success than one might think.

I don’t mean that you have to be an award winning author; writing your thoughts down each day helps to open your brain up to where you’ve been and where you can go.

Writing helps you “stay after yourself.” It will help you self-evaluate your actions, your behavior and how well you are accomplishing those “continuous goals” you should be writing down. You have to constantly evaluate, tweak and adjust your goals so you are always moving forward.

A big part of staying after yourself is to “stay after others.”

The more you encourage others, the more you are encouraging yourself. There is nothing you can do that is more important than helping others along the way.

You text or private message others, but can you imagine the impact you can have right now with a simple phone call? You have a powerful voice. Now is the time to use it.

The person on the other end needs that call. You may need it even more.

Since you can make a difference, go make a difference.

That’s all I’m gonna say.Tommy Gibbs

Be Tough

We’ve all heard the saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” Those words were never truer than they are today.

I actually started writing this a few weeks ago, but my spin on the subject is spot on depending on your definition of the word “competition.”

Right now you’re not just competing against other dealers, you’re competing against the media’s spin and unknown factors that are upsetting you, your team, and the market.

We’ve had some good years so it’s easy to feel somewhat satisfied.

You can never be satisfied. Those sounds you hear behind you are the competition coming to gobble you up. If you take just one little break, take your eye off the ball for one second, or have one little hiccup, it could be the very thing that starts a downward spiral.

As Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz reminds us, “Seek to renew yourself, even when you’re hitting home runs.” How appropriate is that in today’s market?

Tough times and competition always make you better. Those competitors running behind you are a good thing. Learn to appreciate your competitors and make it a point to learn from them. Use them to scare you into more heightened motivation and a stronger competitive mind-set.

Successful people often succeed out of fear. The fear of failure. The fear of falling back. The fear of giving up all they have worked so hard for. It’s that fear that causes the successful ones to keep pushing and to keep looking for new and better ways of doing things.

Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, once said, “You either eat someone for lunch, or you can be lunch.”

Competition is the very lifeblood of a driven business leader. Study it. Embrace it. Love it. Use it as success fuel. Use it to take you to the top of your mental game.

Develop an unstoppable competitive mindset, and it will push you so far ahead of the competition that you won’t have to worry about looking over your shoulder.

Competition is an extra spice that keeps life interesting, keeps us on our toes, and stimulates us to greater creativity and productivity.

The best leaders realize that when they are having success it’s easy for the team to become satisfied and complacent and it’s the leader’s job never to let that happen.

A leader’s job is to push the team through the good times to the next level, and the next level, and the next level.

Pushing through the good times was my original thought on this newsletter. Real leadership shows up when times are tough.

Make sure you show up. That’s all I’m gonna say.Tommy Gibbs

Pandemic Panic: A Scary Time to Be In Business? March 2020

As you are all aware by now there’s quite a bit of unease looming in the air with the one-two punch of COVID-19 and the current Oil Price War. We’ve taken some time to pull together information that we thought could be useful for your planning process as we navigate these shaky times.

I know I don’t need to remind most of you what we went through back in 2008-2009, but there’s no more resilient group of people in the world than the automobile dealers in the USA. We will push through this just like we’ve always done.

Our thoughts are summarized below.

Current Status

Dealers across the nation are reporting that demand is on target with prior expectations at the moment, but it is a much different picture in localized regions and likely to move downward. Local areas that have been more affected by the spread of coronavirus are seeing a decline in sales. Seattle, for example, saw a 20% decline in auto sales last week.

We expect these localized trends to continue as consumers will be likely to exhibit behavior change when things get “close to home”. Also, on a national level, as more celebrities/influencers contract the virus and more organizations/governments take measures to contain it, media coverage will expand and consumers will likely take it more personally, even if it is not yet local. This will likely help propel a downward trend nationally.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says he expects the outbreak to send U.S. auto sales down 9% this year as consumers delay large purchases. Prior to the virus he expected a decline of 1-2%.

It’s unclear at this time whether this will be a quick event or something that plays out over a longer period of time.

Recommendation: Plan for a Range of Scenarios

Right now there is a ton of uncertainty and doom and gloom in the media. Don’t get too caught up in the worst-case scenario and remember to think rationally. Good leadership should plan for a range of scenarios, not just one. We recommend reading the attached report published by McKinsey & Company. This report does a great job of briefing the current situation and range of possible scenarios at a global economic level based on the current facts.

Also, stay informed and pay attention to news and trends for your local market around containment efforts impacting your customers like school/work closures or remote work mandates. Let your leading indicators, like floor traffic, help guide you in your decision making.

Recommendation: Be Hyper-focused on Inventory Levels

If things do slowdown it’s important that you maintain appropriate inventory levels and don’t get stuck with too many units that are destined to age out. Similarly, you don’t want to miss out on a quick recovery because you are too short on inventory right at tax refund time.

To help manage this balance, pay particular attention to units sold vs units acquired at a more granular level than you typically would. We’d recommend your team touch base on this daily as long as market volatility is high and be a touch towards the short side on how many units you’re stocking to accommodate for a likely slowdown. The closer you are to these numbers the quicker you will be able to take corrective action if needed.

A good tactic here could be to pay attention to daily sales compared to prior periods and to project 7-day rolling sales, 14-day rolling sales, and 21-day rolling sales into monthly sales rates. For example, if you sold 10 units in the last 7 days, that would translate to 42 units (10/7 x 30) in a month. Similarly, if you sold 25 units in the last 14 days and 38 units in the last 21 days that would equate to monthly rates of 53 units (25/14 x 30) and 54 units (38/21 x 30), respectively.

You would compute these values for every rolling category every day (i.e. 7-day rolling monthly rate, 14-day rolling monthly rate, etc.). You could then plot each of these rolling monthly rates each day to see if things are slowing down. This would be good to review in the daily meeting mentioned above.

A good rule of thumb would be that your current inventory should not greatly exceed those monthly values. So if you 7-day rolling sales equates to a sales rate of 42 units a month, and you currently have 70 units on hand, you’re likely going to experience unwanted aging on at least 20 of these units.

Note that if things are changing fast in your area, it will take time for the longer rolling periods to pick them up, so pay particular attention to the fluctuations in the 7 and 14-day values. You could use even shorter rolling periods as well, just know that they will be a little more all over the place as they could relate to the day of the week and are just generally have more noise as they are a single data point.

Also, if you do see signs of the virus becoming a bigger concern locally (school closures, spike in cases, local quarantines, cancelation of activities), be sure to adjust levels and cut back on auction purchases in anticipation of things slowing down a little. The 20% decline in Seattle might be a good reference point if things start to hit closer to home for you. (Note this number can change over time, so it would be a good idea to keep an eye on places that are harder hit and see what they are experiencing as you are planning to have a concept of the downside)

Recommendation: Preserving Cash is King in Uncertain Times, Be Hyper-focused on Advertising ROI

In times of great uncertainty and fear, retail marketing effectiveness can take a huge hit as consumers can become distracted and too worried about “bigger problems” to pay attention to your marketing efforts. This is a large variable expense that you should become hyper-focused on now. We’d recommend setting up a daily meeting to touch base on advertising spend and performance as long as market volatility is high.

We’ve attached a report from Dealer Teamwork that has some good comments on short-term branding and consumer behavior due to the virus that is worth a read.

Future Status

While things may slow down initially, we do believe that there will be a post-panic boom. This is likely to be fueled by pent-up demand and historically low rates. Its too early to make any comments on the timing here but do believe these conditions will prove to be favorable in the future. Stay the course and use any downtime to focus on all your basics that have served you so well in the past. Tommy Gibbs & Jarrod Tanton

We’re here to help

We wish you and your team the best during this uncertainty. Be safe, use common sense, and protect your health. Don’t hesitate to reach out if we can be of any assistance in any way.

 

Breath of Life?

I received a call the other day from a dealer raving about how great his used car business is.

Over the years his increase in used car sales has been astonishing. In part, because he became a believer in a lot of my concepts and philosophies; none more important than retailing anything that has a breath of life in it.

I’ve always been a big believer in trying to retail everything that has a breath of life left in it. Certainly, you have state safety laws to abide by and of course, you may have your own standards for safety and reconditioning.

Often dealers conclude that they don’t want to mess with the older used vehicles because they don’t want to damage their reputation. I’ve never understood that part. The customers buying the older, cheaper units are thrilled to have that vehicle. It’s not going to hurt your reputation.

In case you’re sitting on the fence on a “Budget Center,” ask yourself these simple questions.

1. What about all the parts and service gross that would have been generated on the less expensive cars going through service and reconditioning?

2. What about the fact that you could have put more money in some trades because you intend to retail them vs. wholesale them? How many more car deals do you end up making because you have a better plan?

3. Does the increase in volume from the less expensive units impact the attitude of the sales staff and their ability to earn additional income? Isn’t it true the best time to sell a car is when you just sold a car?

4. What’s the benefit of having someone driving a car, any car, high dollar, low dollar, that they purchased from you?

5. Is there a chance you just sold a car to someone who might never have set foot in your store simply because you had a vehicle at a price point they could afford to pay?

6. Is it possible that this new customer has a friend or relative who might one day come buy something because of the way this new customer was treated during the buying experience?

7. Are the odds in your favor that they may come back for an oil change or another service?

8. Does doing business generate business?

9. What’s the “Return on Investment” on selling these less expensive cars? Relative to the amount of money tied up, aren’t they a far better investment than what you would make with a $25,000 car?

How many times in a year can you turn over a $7,000 to $10,000 investment vs. a $25,000 investment?

10. Doesn’t it make sense that if you can sell more cars with less money tied up that it’s a good thing? There isn’t much of a downside to increasing volume and decreasing investment.

It’s found money, that’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

Your First Kiss

The first of anything is always the best. Coffee is a great example. I highly anticipate each morning the first taste of my cup of coffee.

It’s amazingly the best. Most things are like that.

The first time you kissed your wife, husband, girlfriend or boyfriend is far better than the smooches you’ve most recently got.

The first lick of your ice cream cone is better than the last and so on. It’s called the law of stuff tastes better at first. (Yes, I made that up.)

Used cars are that way too. Selling one in the first 10 days tastes a lot better than selling it on day 50. The biggest difference between selling a used car and getting a kiss is that selling a used car is based on math. Kissing is based on kissing. Imagine that?

There are two problems going on in today’s market.

1. We failed to recognize those units that need to be first, as in sold really fast.

Those will be your most problematic units such as ones you’ve buried yourself in, bad color, auction purchases, high dollar unit, etc. These are units that you do not have a favorable cost to market or days supply.

You have to accept the fact that you’re not going to make a ton of gross on them, but they serve a very worthwhile purpose in your business model. There are benefits galore at turning and burning these units.

2. The bigger problem is dealers often think turn and burn on everything, with little or no regard for an attractive market position.

If you have a favorable cost to market and days supply why do you need to blow that unit out so fast? Yes, you’ve made a profit, but you left a bunch on the table.

If you want to improve gross profit, you have to know which ones to hold and which ones to fold and never forget all kisses are not equal.

That’s all I’m gonna say.Tommy Gibbs

You’re Not Ready

You’re not ready. That’s different than being not prepared. You’re never ready.

But, no one is ever ready for the next step.

You’re not ready for the next promotion.

You’re not ready for your next business venture.

Just because you’re not ready doesn’t mean you don’t prepare.

Not being prepared means you haven’t studied enough. You haven’t read enough.

You haven’t sought the right mentors.

You haven’t listened enough.

You haven’t asked enough of the right questions.

You haven’t explored the Internet enough.

Not being prepared means you just haven’t done enough, Tommy Gibbs

Would You Like an Open Point?

Given the chance, most people I know would jump at the chance to get an open point.

If you have the assets to make it happen, the only drawback for you would be staffing and no units in operation to support your fixed operations.

Even with those obstacles, most people will figure a way to make it happen

This type of opportunity doesn’t come along often so your decision is understandable.

Since the odds are not in your favor of getting an open point, why not invest in your used car operation?

Your new car volume isn’t likely to improve all that much with the numbers nationally hovering around 17 million. Cranking up used cars makes a lot of sense.

Of course, I think you should invest in my training and invest in increasing your enthusiasm and passion for the used car business.

That said, perhaps the best investment for you would be in a standalone recon/service center. Your first reaction is it doesn’t make financial sense. Let’s look a little deeper.

If you have two or more stores or if your stand-alone store is selling 100 plus used a month maybe it’s an investment you need to give serious consideration to.

If your current service department is operating at close to 100% efficiency, you are more than likely losing customer pay because you’re not able to service those customers in a timely manner.

We live in a world of “now.” If you can’t get them in right now, you may very well lose them forever.

With your used cars not clogging up your service operation, you should be able to quickly work your way back to 100% efficiency in the service department.

By having a separate recon car operation you’re going to shave a number of days off the number of days tied up in recon.

Every day you save makes you money. Forget about the savings in holding costs. Your grosses are the best in the first 10 days you sell a car. Faster is better.

With a recon car operation, you’re likely to be more flexible about how you price labor and parts to the used car department.

That’s especially true when it comes to keeping some of the older, cheaper, high mileage stuff, etc.

Retailing a unit vs. wholesaling a unit is always a winning proposition for you.

If you don’t have room to build a building, then look for something you can rent or buy within a 5-mile radius of your store or stores. Yes, you will have to shuffle them back and forth, but you can figure that out.

Some questions you should ask:

How much internal work are you now doing?

What’s the impact of moving that from your service department?

Can your service department make up the difference?

How many additional units will you have to sell for the recon center to more than pay for itself?

By opening a separate recon center what’s the message you are sending your organization?

Now is the time to invest in your used car operation. That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs

 

Overeducated?

“The overeducated are worse off than the undereducated, having traded common sense for the illusion of knowledge.” Naval Ravikant

I saw this quote and it was a good reminder that we have to be careful in the automobile business to not let data be the only decision-making factor to determine a strategy for each used car in our stock portfolio.

I’m constantly reminding my audiences that every used car is different and has to be fully evaluated as the unique beast it is.

Your skill, your knowledge, your experience, and good common sense play a major role in your success.

Never sell yourself short. Then on the other hand never sell yourself on being too smart.

Software is a tool and a guide that should help point you in the right direction, but at the end of the day, it’s your decision making that’s going to make a big difference.

Show me someone that “gets” the car business and understands how to analyze data, and I’ll show you someone managing a used car department that’s rocking.

Rock your used car department by using common sense and technology. That’s all I’m gonna say, Tommy Gibbs